the year of the war

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in the event internationally, the year that is about to end will undoubtedly be remembered for the start of the conflict between Russia and Ukraine, which began on February 20 with the invasion of the north, east and south of the territory governed by kyiv and which to date has not has signs of a solution. Although surprising and unexpected for most of international public opinion, the special military operation launched by the Kremlin against the neighboring country was the culmination of various unresolved disputes between the two parties and which the West took advantage of or neglected.

The military confrontation between the two countries has resulted in the disappearance of some of the geopolitical assumptions on which the precarious peace in Eastern Europe rested after the disappearance of the Soviet bloc, in a worrisome energy shortage crisis and in a severe alteration of trade and world finance. In addition, the Russian invasion of Ukraine finds real or supposed resonances in East Asia, particularly in the strait that separates Taiwan from mainland China and on the Korean peninsula, where in the absence of a peace agreement between the two countries that form it, a fragile armistice that in 2023 will be seven decades old.

On the other hand, Western governments and media have reacted to the conflict with a belligerence that seems motivated by the desire to prolong and complicate the war: from massive arms supplies to Ukraine to the proliferation of openly Russophobic speeches. The European Union, severely affected by a suspension of Russian gas supplies that it itself caused, seems to have resigned itself to being the tail wagon of the United States, while tensions and high-sounding expressions are heightening between the latter and Russia.

2022 ends with the reiteration of Russian bombings on Ukrainian infrastructure works and with attacks by kyiv on Russian territory. But in the geostrategic calculations, the suffering of Ukrainians and Russians does not appear anywhere, which translates into tens of thousands of deaths, millions of displaced Ukrainians and the degradation of the standard of living in both countries as a consequence of the war effort.

Thus, 2023 will start without a prospect of peace and with a high probability of joining the period of endless war. Washington and Brussels know that no matter how much war material they provide to Volodymir Zelensky’s government, Russia will not be defeated. There can be no doubt in the Kremlin that as long as kyiv continues to receive massive Western backing for war, it will not be able to impose its terms on Ukraine.

In such circumstances, the leaders of all the warring parties should recognize that sooner or later, and unless it escalates to a direct clash between Washington and Moscow, the confrontation will end at the negotiating table. And it would be better to opt for that perspective from now on, thus saving thousands of lives and avoiding additional material devastation to what has already been caused.


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